[monad airdrop estimates] i didn’t really want to speak on this topic, since my views might come across as going against popular opinion. but a lot of people asked me to cover it, so let’s go. first, let’s start with the target @monad fdv in my head, based on current pre-markets, listings, and other factors. before pre-markets and other projects that i think deserve much lower valuations came along, my target was around 6b. now i see an fdv of 9-12b. let’s take the middle ground: 10b fdv and a token price of $0.10. in my view, i don’t see the tge airdrop exceeding 7%. there might be more allocated for airdrops, but we could see a seasonal approach like optimism, arbitrum, etc. - 2% - roles and social activity - 2% - testnet - 1% - other community partners - 1% - monad cards - 0.2-0.5% - validators at current prices, that’s around $700 million. i intentionally didn’t include things like monad momentum or other rewards/grants here, since i don’t expect them in this "season," at least. roles and social activity (2%) /// since i can’t share exact role numbers to avoid leaking non-public info, i’ll just share my estimates. i believe each role will have a base allocation, and your final allocation will be the sum of all the roles you hold. main roles: mon2 - 2,000,000 mon mon - 1,000,000 mon nad-og - 500,000 mon nads - 250,000 mon localnads - 200,000 mon tg - 100,000 mon total: ~0.7% for all main roles. additional roles: monactivist - not sure about allocation, as several people told me this role was "removed" running hot - 300,000 mon quant - 200,000 mon monartist - 200,000 mon monvideo - 200,000 mon 1)what - 50,000 mon pioneer - 50,000 mon total: ~0.15% for all additional roles. we have a ton of other roles that could still matter (devnads is a good example), but they seem less significant to me than the ones above. let’s take this roles for the remaining 0.15%, bringing the total for all roles to 1%. i also didn’t include full access, not because i think people with this role don’t deserve anything, but because it’s very hard to distribute fairly. everyone who joined early - got this role, so there are now many people with it. i’m sure there are farms with 200-500-1000 full access accounts, and if they aren’t filtered out, a lot of tokens will go to fraud people. social activity: recognizer + data monad collects about our accounts. 7,000 people in the recognizer. i’ll assume around 2,000 get filtered out (likely more, but let’s take a non-optimistic case) as clear bot accounts unrelated to monad. that leaves 5,000 people who’ll get something (finally monad cards❔). it would make sense to split them into tiers via the recognizer. let’s say 5 tiers: tier s - 100 people - 700,000 mon tier a - 300 people - 400,000 mon tier b - 600 people - 150,000 mon tier c - 1,000 people - 75,000 mon tier d - 2,000 people - 50,000 mon total: ~1.5% for roles + recognizer. the remaining 0.5% could go to people who posted about monad but didn’t register in the recognizer (early supporters, kols, etc.) and to other social platforms like farcaster. testnet (2%) /// who might qualify: - 1 million nads sbt - 628,000 people - monad games sbt - 34,000 people - value holders - people with a certain amount of mon across platforms (including in nfts) - contract deployers - fee spenders - nft minters - consistent users - protocol interactions - etc. many people compare this testnet airdrop to arbitrum/hyperliquid and claim the monad testnet airdrop will be 10%, 20%, or even 100% of the supply (lol). but they completely miss that arbitrum’s airdrop wasn’t for the testnet - it was for people who spent real money on fees in the actual l2. same with hyperliquid. i also don’t think all sbt holders will get the airdrop - there are too many sybils here. it was possible to farm 100-200-1000-10,000 accounts in 24 hours, so there will clearly be a cleanup. other partners communities (1%) /// at least three projects have given airdrops to nads, so they might get something in return. there are also nft projects that received purple passes. and friend-projects. monad cards (1%) /// how to make everyone in crypto twitter bullish on monad❔ give away money that was earned in two clicks. 9,000 cards - 100,000 mon if we don’t split into tiers. but based on hints from tunez and other team members, there are clearly tiers, and top kols might get a lot. validators (0.2-0.5%) /// almost 100% sure there will be an airdrop for validators, but i expect it to be vested or even locked. there are around 200 teams validating monad part run nodes on testnet-1, part on testnet-2, part on both. so obviously, teams in both testnets will get more. what do you think❔ are my expectations too low❔ how many tokens would you get based on my estimates❔