Nobody can predict the future, but I gave two scenarios for the Solana trenches post $trump 10 months ago, and unfortunately the bearish stance was spot on. TradFi BTC flows and DATs carried all of majors while alts and onchain continue to bleed (with pockets of strength). Feels like most active traders chopped themselves up since, or successfully cashed out and that capital to never return onchain
Good news is that I think we've had our critical reset, and feels like we're at the beginning of a new chapter on Solana. BTC ATHs in Q4, and whether that's top at whichever price matters less. What I think is this will draw back more traders from the past and new
Q4 2025 into Q1 2026 is a new regime - I've explained why I believe ICM is not just a short term rotation and fixes many of the issues with token launches. But it's also a category with the stars aligned:
- Clear alignment for @aeyakovenko & @SolanaFndn and team as a serious contender to replace traditional capital markets, onboard fresh users onto @solana, and significant use case for Solana outside of highly speculative memecoins
- Clearer regulatory framework and SEC openly supportive of on raising money onchain without scrutiny
- Institutional flows and support from @KyleSamani w/ @multicoincap
- @MeteoraAG $MET airdrop October 23rd and I estimate ~500m of fresh capital airdropped to Solana users (~15% airdrop, ~3B FDV). Many of these users native to memecoins and will invest back into the market
We're seeing a clear sign of appetite for ICM tokens last week, and I expect the trend and meta to continue. I might be early, and it may take some weeks for things to really take off. Some holds will be painful, but all will be worth it. Of course my portfolio is all in on ICM tokens, including $launchcoin (and eco), $ICM, and spot $pump
Chart below shows us onchain volume over time (ignore Sept 4-9th, inflated metrics), and I believe we can see onchain volume at all time highs in the near future
Run it all back, AI season of 2024 but for ICM 2025
Been doing some thinking after everything in the market turned a 180 with $trump
I think there’s a world where $BTC keeps chadding via tradfi flows and bullish gov regulations, everyone cuts themselves up onchain gambling for the rest of the cycle, but no clear winning new alts to 5b+ and lots of rotations like we've seen prior
I actually think $trump might be our only saving grace to get real exit liq from new players to stay and play our ponzi. So far retail have only lost money and won't be coming back unless
If $trump fails then we've literally exhausted all of retail and nobody is here to play musical chairs with us anymore. Eventually many cashout as r/r lessen, get burned out (new participants), and liquidity for alts (mostly onchain)/new pairs dries out over time. Nobody owns BTC anymore so there’s nobody making money from BTC to pass down to alts. No new participants either
In the $trump bull case, $SOL crimes up to $500, with $trump ~20% of Solana circ, top 7-10. New participants arrive because they're made to bullieve and invigorate the trenches, which is what we all want
Any thoughts?
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